Can Trump achieve peace in Ukraine?
The biggest obstacle to a long-term settlement remains Europe’s ultra-hawkish anti-Russian stance — which the “Europeanisation” of NATO is actually intensifying
I’ve written for UnHerd about Trump’s peace overtures in Ukraine and why the biggest obstacle to a long-term settlement remains Europe’s ultra-hawkish anti-Russian stance — a development that the “Europeanisation” of NATO is actually intensifying:
Underlying [Europe’s] growing military buildup is the belief that Russia poses an existential threat to Europe, despite Moscow lacking both the capability and intent to attack NATO. What might be dismissed as European posturing in response to US disengagement actually represents a significant obstacle to peace. As long as European leaders continue to escalate militarily, the chances of a diplomatic resolution to the Ukraine war diminish.
The real danger is that by persistently predicting an inevitable war with Russia, and preparing for it, Europe may ultimately bring that very war into reality. Faced with a rapidly growing European arms buildup and entrenched anti-Russian sentiment, Moscow may conclude that waiting is no longer an option. If European NATO members continue escalating tensions, Russia could decide to strike pre-emptively rather than risk allowing NATO’s military capabilities to reach a critical threshold. Even in a less extreme scenario, Europe’s increasingly aggressive posture is fundamentally incompatible with a lasting peace in Ukraine, which requires Europe acknowledging Russia’s security concerns — and ultimately renormalising relations with Russia.
In other words, while the Trump administration’s pivot away from Europe and push for diplomacy may appear to be a step toward de-escalation, it risks unintentionally achieving the opposite. Rather than restraining Europe’s military ambitions, US disengagement is emboldening key EU and NATO actors — particularly in Eastern Europe — to pursue an increasingly confrontational stance toward Russia.
The Europeanisation of NATO, framed as a necessity following US withdrawal, has accelerated the continent’s militarisation and its leaders’ demonisation of Russia, perpetuating the very conditions that caused the conflict in Ukraine in the first place. Instead of using this moment to engage in diplomacy, European leaders view the US retreat as a reason to escalate militarily. In this sense, Washington’s decoupling from Europe is at odds with Trump’s stated aim of achieving peace in Ukraine.
Unless European leadership acknowledges Russia’s security concerns, the prospects for a long-term settlement will remain bleak — and the risk of a larger war will continue to loom over the continent.
Read the article here. If you’re a paid subscriber and you can’t access the paywall write to me at thomasfazi82@gmail.com.
If you liked the article, please consider sharing it on X.
Putting out high-quality journalism requires constant research, most of which goes unpaid, so if you appreciate my writing please consider upgrading to a paid subscription if you haven’t already. Aside from a fuzzy feeling inside of you, you’ll get access to exclusive articles and commentary.
Thomas Fazi
Website: thomasfazi.net
Twitter: @battleforeurope
Latest book: The Covid Consensus: The Global Assault on Democracy and the Poor—A Critique from the Left (co-authored with Toby Green)
IMHO, it is profoundly misleading to use the words "peace" and trump's AIPAC administration in the same sentence, for three reasons. One, every single action of this pro-billionaire pro-empire infantile mass-murderer (including the EXTREME war hawks, NeoCons and ultra-zionists that he filled his AIPAC administration with) points to COMLETE DISREGARD for human life and complete dedication to billionaire oligarch domination over humanity. The only reason that trump's zionist billionaire handlers want to wrap-up the the operation in ukraine is because they want to shift and direct all the empire's fire power and resources into their two main objectives - their coming planned attack on china (to destroy BRICS and any challenge to their global domination); their funding and arming of the zionist colonizers' FINAL SOLUTION for the local people in palestine (either complete extermination or ethnic cleansing); and their coming planned attack on iran (both direct militarized-economic attack and/or through another one of their color revolutions).
If there's an interest, I wrote about all these here https://substack.com/@headandheart1/p-150090964
This isn't "peace". This is an IMPERIAL MANOUVER, by a global empire that absolutely detests and fears the possibility of peace between ordinary (non rulkng class) people and that thrives on eternal division, hate and conflict around the planet. I'll explain in a moment why the last thing in tne world that trumps' billionaires' empire wants is real peace on this planet (this will be the third point below)
Secondly , don't forget that russia is white and mostly christian, and therefore russians are not the ones who should be killed by the empire, according to tne God-ignorant religious fundametalists that trump filled his administration with, but rather the empire should be murdering only non-white non-christian infidels. That's another reason why trumps' christian fascists and NeoCon zionists are wrapping up this operation in preperation for their murder campaigns (crusades) elsewhere
Last reason why IMHO it is ignorant and misleading to claim that trump's AIPAC billionaires' empire have even the slightest interest in real peace between ordinary people on this planet (and in fact do everything possible to prevent such a thing from happening) is because Tribalist DIVISION, FEAR & HATRED (of an "evil monstrous scary enemy") is how oppressive ruling elites maintain control over "their own" people, who would otherwise be far more likely to remove the ultra-rich abusive elites from power.
Predatory ruling elites absolutely need to ensure that "their people" fear a boogyman EVIL ENEMY and look to their own "patriotic leaders" as protectors against that enemy.
That is why they use ANY MEANS NECESSARY to ensure that the tribalist-nationalist-religious division, fear, hatred and violence never ends. That is why they and their ptopagandists constantly teach us to fear and hate the "evil enemy of tje nation" (who that enemy happens to be can change from generation to generation, but what doesn't change is that they ALWAYS must create an 'evil monstrous scary enemy' for us to fear and hate), while paying lip service as if they want to end conflicts, when IN REALITY the end of national-religious division, hatred and conflict is the thing our billionaire rulers fear the most.
Peace, unity and cooperation between ordinary (non ruling class) people is an EXISTENTIAL THREAT to the billionaire ruling class and they make absolutely sure that it can never happen, make sure to incite as much religious-nationalist division, fear and hatred as possible.
Their elevated position of power over society depends on keeping us in a state of tribalist division, fear, unsafety, hatred and eternal conflict and war!!
They teach us to fear and hate "the enemy" through their narrative managers in their propaganda media (both their corporate mainstream media, or their mainstream "alternative media", which in most cases isn't alternative or independent at all) and through their numeous paid influencers on social media.
For many examples and full details on exactly how the elite oppresors across the planet do that, please see here https://www.pdrboston.org/oppressors-need-bogeyman-enemies (besides the profoundly important main essay, be sure to also follow the links leading out from the essay, for further learning and insight).
PS. The fact that the other faction of the american billiinaires' global empire (the right-wing DNC liberal capitalists in the DNC) are ALSO imperialist scum does NOT make the conservative faction of the empire (the fake "populist" billionaires) into the solution. That is precisely the trick that is played by the empire managers on americans (either the clueless mainstream liberals or the dumb and deceived MAGA worshippers) and other westerners, to herd us (using the oligarchs' algorithms) into partisan enclosures/echo-chambers, where we are taught to cheer for one or the other wing of the global oligarchy and to view the other half as 'the evil ones'. Very few seem to recognize BOTH halves of the elite, and very few seem to want real freedom from empire and dignity for all humans, but most seem to just want that the empire be under the right management, the management of "our billionaires" (not “their billionaires”), seem to just want the domination of the one wing of the oligarchy that they learnt to identify with
Warmongering ...German Foreign Minister Baerbock called for strikes deep into Russian territory‼️:
"What we are supplying them [Kiev] is not enough to repel Russian aggression. I agree with my European colleagues. We must strike targets on Russian territory. I hope that in this critical moment that we are experiencing today, we will be able to agree 100% on everything we do in the field of defense."
https://twitter.com/peacemaket71/status/1890804998717456809