Forever war in Ukraine?

Plus: why the counteroffensive was bound to fail from the start, the historical roots of the conflict in Ukraine, who really controls NATO, Australia’s sub-sovereignty

Dear all,

I’ve got a new piece out for UnHerd where I look at the next phase of the West’s strategy in Ukraine: the transformation of the conflict into an Afghanistan-style war of attrition. “A long war”, as NATO’s chief put it. As I write:

The prospect of long-term war of attrition is worrying for a number of reasons. Firstly, because, if Ukraine had little chance of winning a blitzkrieg-style counteroffensive, it has even less chance of winning a war of attrition, given Russia’s advantage in manpower and its ability to produce more artillery and ammunitions than Ukraine and the West combined (Russia’s current ammunition production is seven times greater than that of the West). “If the war goes on for long enough with this intensity, Ukraine’s losses will become unbearable,” a senior French official told the Wall Street Journal in February. And second, because as the conflict drags on, and potentially escalates, direct Nato involvement in the conflict — and thus the risk of an all-out war between Nato and Russia — will inevitably increase. Europeans should be especially worried by the prospect of a long war: if American military assistance starts to wane, Europe will need to carry more of the burden.

Indeed, a crucial aspect of the US strategy moving forward seems to be the “Europeanisation” of the war: to have the EU carry the burden for supporting Ukraine. That way, the EU would end up fighting a proxy war on America’s behalf, almost entirely to the latter’s benefit — the ultimate act of vassalisation. Read the article here.

I hope you enjoy the article, and as usual any feedback is welcome. If you like my writing, please consider upgrading to a paid subscription. Putting out high-quality journalism requires constant research, most of which goes unpaid. Plus, you’ll also get access to exclusive content: my favourite reads of the weeks, commentary about current events, interesting links. See below 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻

And now, for paying subscribers only, here’s a selection — with my comments — of some of most interesting articles and news pieces I’ve come across during the past week. The topics include: why the counteroffensive was bound to fail from the start; the historical roots of the conflict in Ukraine; who really controls NATO; Australia’s sub-sovereignty, and more.