From Gaza to Syria: Israel's permanent war
The continuous multiplication of fronts on which Israel is militarily engaged has placed Tel Aviv in a tunnel from which the Netanyahu government does not seem able to exit
Guest post by Roberto Iannuzzi, originally published in Italian on his Substack.
Israel has a new military chief
Israel has a new military chief, General Eyal Zamir. Addressing him at his inauguration ceremony, prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the Jewish state is “determined” to achieve victory in its “multi-front war” that began on October 7, 2023.
Zamir, who declared that 2025 will be “a year of combat”, is reportedly planning a large-scale ground operation to “increase pressure” on Hamas.
“Hamas has indeed suffered a severe blow, but it has not yet been defeated. The mission is not yet accomplished”, the general said.
He will also take command of the ongoing offensive in the West Bank, where the Israeli army has attacked cities and refugee camps, and for the first time in twenty years has also deployed tanks.
Although it has withdrawn from most of southern Lebanon, Israel has maintained control of five military outposts in Lebanese territory and continues to carry out air raids in the neighbouring country.
Tel Aviv is also extending its military campaign into Syria, where it has built additional outposts in the occupied Golan Heights following the fall of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, while its air force continues to strike targets across various parts of the country, including the Tartus port area.
Meanwhile, Israeli F-15 and F-35 jets have conducted joint exercises with an American B-52 bomber and British fighters — a message likely directed at Iran.
Negotiations between Washington and Tehran remain a difficult avenue to pursue.
Despite the alleged letter sent by US president Donald Trump to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Iranian government stated that it is not willing to negotiate under the yoke of threats and sanctions imposed by the White House (which it describes as “maximum pressure”).
A fragile ceasefire
In Gaza, the three-phase ceasefire that began on January 19 shows signs of breaking down after the first phase ended on Sunday, March 2, without negotiations even beginning to define the implementation details of the second phase.
The Netanyahu government does not intend to start the second phase, which involves the completion of Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza in exchange for the release of the remaining hostages by Hamas. Tel Aviv refuses in particular to withdraw from the Philadelphia Corridor along the border between the Strip and Egypt.
During the 42 days of the first phase of the ceasefire, Israel repeatedly violated the terms of the agreement, delaying the delivery of humanitarian aid, debris removal machinery and prefabricated mobile homes, as confirmed by the New York Times.
Israeli armed forces have repeatedly opened fire in the Strip, killing over a hundred Palestinians since the start of the truce.
Finally, the Netanyahu government has once again blocked the entry of aid to Gaza to force Hamas to accept an extension of the first phase, releasing more hostages without any concessions in return.
In concrete terms, Tel Aviv proposed extending the first phase throughout Ramadan and until the end of Passover (April 19). Of the remaining 59 hostages (35 deceased and 24 believed to be still alive), half would be released on the first day of the extension, while the others would be freed at the end if a permanent ceasefire agreement is reached in the meantime.
This means that if the conflict reignites at the end of the agreed period, only 12 living hostages would remain in Hamas’s hands. The Palestinian group has rejected the Israeli proposal, denouncing the aid blockade as a violation of the agreement.
For its part, the White House has stated its support for the new Israeli proposal while refraining from corroborating Netanyahu’s claim that the proposal was actually formulated by Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff.
Washington has effectively given Israel carte blanche in managing the ceasefire after initially negotiating its terms. Trump declared that he is ready to accept any decision made by the Netanyahu government, whether it be a continuation of the truce or a resumption of military operations.
However, the White House has taken the unprecedented initiative of negotiating directly with Hamas to secure the release of American hostages, sparking the ire of Tel Aviv.
Politics of blackmail
Negotiations for an extension of the ceasefire, in some form, continue under a regime of threats and intimidation. The latest American proposal to Hamas is to release ten hostages in exchange for another 60 days of truce.
Recently, reports surfaced that Israel was preparing a “hell plan” to force Hamas to release the remaining hostages without Israeli troops completing their withdrawal from Gaza.
The plan would have included, in addition to the existing aid blockade, cutting off the water and electricity supply to the Palestinian enclave.
The threat materialised yesterday, when Israel cut off electricity, which also powers the desalination plants producing potable water in the Strip.
Trump, in turn, issued a harsh threat against Hamas: “Release all of the hostages now, not later… or it is OVER for you”, the president stated. “I am sending Israel everything it needs to finish the job, not a single Hamas member will be safe if you don’t do as I say”.
Upon taking office, the new US administration has pushed forward a new Israeli rearmament campaign, sending thousands of 2,000-pound bombs and approving $4 billion in military aid.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently implied that the ultimate goal remains the elimination of the Palestinian group governing Gaza: “ultimately someone is going to have to go in and get rid of Hamas”.
The humanitarian situation in the Strip remains dire. According to UN data, 69 percent of the Palestinian enclave’s infrastructure has been destroyed or damaged.
Specifically, 88 percent of the commercial and industrial sector, 81 percent of the road network, 82 percent of cultivated land and 78 percent of greenhouses have been affected.
95 percent of livestock has died. 95 percent of hospitals have suffered significant damage. Overall, the Strip’s economy has shrunk by 83 percent, and the entire population now depends on food aid to survive.
According to the Lancet, in the first 12 months of the conflict, Gaza’s life expectancy plummeted from 75.5 years to just 40.5 — the lowest in the world (18 years less than in Somalia, 14 less than in Nigeria).
Egyptian plan
Meanwhile, Netanyahu has repeatedly expressed his support for Trump’s ethnic cleansing plan for the Strip, proposed in early February, which involves deporting the enclave’s inhabitants to Egypt, Jordan and other countries.
Last week, at a meeting in Cairo, Arab countries approved a counterproposal formulated by Egypt, which includes a $53 billion reconstruction plan allowing Gaza’s inhabitants to remain in their land.
The plan is divided into three phases over a total period of five years. The first phase, lasting six months, involves the delivery of temporary shelters to the population and the removal of 50 million tons of rubble in various parts of the enclave.
The second phase, lasting two years, includes the construction of about 200,000 apartments. An equivalent number is expected to be built over the following two and a half years. The plan also involves constructing a port and an international airport.
During the first phase, Gaza would be governed by a commission of independent Palestinian technicians, tasked with managing administrative and security affairs and distributing aid.
Later, after a series of internal reforms, the Palestinian National Authority (PNA), which currently administers the occupied West Bank, would extend its control to the Strip.
Egypt and Jordan would be responsible for training a Palestinian police force, which would be controlled by the PNA.
The plan envisions that during the first phase, direct negotiations between Israel and Palestinian representatives will begin, addressing the “final status issues” of the Oslo Accords, including defining the borders of a future Palestinian state and the status of the contested city of Jerusalem.
The Egyptian proposal also tackles the issue of Hamas’s weapons, stating that “a clear horizon and a credible political process” for Palestinian self-determination is a prerequisite for disarmament.
The plan has been welcomed by the UN and Hamas itself, which has expressed willingness to cede power without laying down arms. However, it has been rejected by Israel and largely dismissed by the Trump administration.
The Netanyahu government considers Hamas’s disarmament a prerequisite for any further consideration and wants Arab countries to handle the issue, potentially leading to a conflict between them and Hamas (a kind of intra-Arab civil war).
Furthermore, Israel refuses the prospect of the PNA governing Gaza. It should be noted that long before October 7, 2023, Netanyahu repeatedly stated his opposition to the creation of a Palestinian state.
Meanwhile, in the US, plans continue to circulate that propose the “voluntary” emigration of at least 40 percent of Gaza’s population.
“Iron Wall” in the West Bank
However, the Palestinian tragedy is not limited to the Gaza Strip. Within the Netanyahu government, the temptation is growing to resolve the Palestinian issue once and for all.
Just 48 hours after the ceasefire came into effect in Gaza, on January 19, Tel Aviv launched an unprecedented military operation in the West Bank.
Named “Iron Wall”, the operation involves more than twelve army battalions, the border police and the Shin Bet (Israel’s internal security services). It has included aerial bombings, the use of drones, quadcopters, tanks and other armoured vehicles.
The military action is officially targeted at armed groups that emerged in the refugee camps of Jenin, Tulkarm, Nur Shams and Tubas following heavy Israeli incursions after October 7, 2023.
However, the campaign has turned into a full-blown ethnic cleansing operation, expelling 40,000 people from the camps; according to Israeli officials, they will not be allowed to return.
The destruction caused by Tel Aviv’s armed forces in the camps and adjacent urban areas has been so extensive that residents describe their neighbourhoods as “small Gazas”.
Israeli bulldozers have demolished homes and roads, the electricity and water networks, and wireless towers. Finance minister Bezalel Smotrich stated in mid-February that “the goal for 2025 is to demolish more than the Palestinians build in the West Bank”.
Meanwhile, the Israeli government is constructing about 1,000 new housing units in the Efrat settlement near Jerusalem. Smotrich has long aimed to annex the West Bank to Israel, as outlined in his 2017 manifesto “Israel’s Decisive Plan”.
Military outposts and attacks in Lebanon
Israeli armed forces remain engaged in Lebanon despite a partial withdrawal on February 19, the second deadline set by the ceasefire agreement with Beirut, which took effect last November.
The agreement stipulated a total Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon in exchange for Hezbollah’s redeployment north of the Litani River, about 30 km from the border. South of the river, under the terms of the deal, the Lebanese army and UNIFIL (the long-established UN peacekeeping force) would be stationed.
However, accusing Lebanon of not fully complying with the agreement, Tel Aviv initially extended its occupation and, after the February 19 withdrawal, maintained control of five military outposts on strategic heights within Lebanese territory.
This decision has sparked strong protests from Beirut’s new government, led by president Joseph Aoun, who has appealed to the United States and other international mediators involved in the agreement to pressure Israel into completing its withdrawal.
Lebanese foreign minister Joe Rajji has also proposed that UNIFIL forces take control of the five outposts, but without success.
Israeli defense minister Israel Katz recently declared that his country’s forces would remain “indefinitely” in what he described as a “buffer zone”, stating that he has received approval from the US.
The five outposts are located on strategic heights near the border, providing Israeli forces with extensive visibility over much of southern Lebanon.
Tel Aviv’s air force has continued striking targets in Lebanon even after the February 19 withdrawal. On March 7, it carried out over thirty airstrikes on cities and villages in the south, targeting alleged Hezbollah positions.
Destabilising Syria
Following the fall of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, Israeli troops created another buffer zone in Syria, adjacent to the occupied Golan Heights, seizing control of Mount Hermon (the highest peak in the country at nearly 3,000 meters above sea level) and advancing within a few dozen kilometres of Damascus.
Netanyahu clarified in December that the new occupation is not a temporary measure pending Syria’s stabilisation but will be “indefinite”.
In this newly occupied territory, Israeli forces have constructed at least seven military outposts, as revealed by satellite images.
Pursuing an even more ambitious strategy, on February 23, the Israeli premier demanded the complete demilitarisation of Syria south of Damascus. “We will not allow Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham [the armed group that toppled Assad] or the new Syrian army to enter the territory south of Damascus”, Netanyahu declared.
He also positioned himself as a defender of the Druze minority (present in Lebanon, Israel and Jordan), stating that “we will not tolerate any threats to the Druze community in southern Syria”.
Netanyahu's claims have triggered strong protests in Syria, both among the Druze and the broader population.
Netanyahu’s choice to present himself as a defender of the Druze falls within a traditional Israeli strategy: considering itself a minority in the region, Israel has long aimed at forming an alliance with other minorities such as Druze, Kurds and Christians in order to weaken the Sunni Arab majority.
In Syria, the Netanyahu government aims to create a Kurdish-Druze “crescent” in the south and east of the country, which would sympathise with Israel, limit Turkish influence and establish a sort of corridor capable of linking the Jewish state with Iraqi Kurdistan, another region with strong ties to Tel Aviv.
Such a corridor would also be made possible by the American base at al-Tanf, located along the southeastern Syrian border near Jordan and Iraq.
Last January in Israel, the Defense Commission, known as the “Nagel Commission” (named after the former head of the National Security Council who presides over it), warned in its latest report that Turkey’s growing influence in Syria would represent a serious threat to Tel Aviv.
Hence the Israeli decision to demand the demilitarisation of southern Syria and to seek an alliance with the Kurds, and possibly with the Druze, to keep the neighbouring country weak and divided.
In light of the violent clashes that have occurred in recent days between Syrian government forces and the Alawite minority from which the Assad regime originated — clashes that have led to the massacre of hundreds of civilians by the former — Israel’s objective appears to be within reach.
The fact remains that the continuous multiplication of fronts on which Israel is militarily engaged, in addition to contributing to dangerous regional destabilisation, has placed Tel Aviv in a tunnel from which the Netanyahu government does not seem able to exit.
The prospect of a perpetual war on multiple fronts is set to wear down the Jewish state, already weakened by a severe internal crisis, with consequences that are difficult to predict for its stability.
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Thomas Fazi
Website: thomasfazi.net
Twitter: @battleforeurope
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Thanks for a VERY good update on the situation in the Middle East / West Asia, for anyone (like me!) who finds events difficult to keep track of!
The question, of course, is — does Israel want to exit?