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Steve Jack's avatar

Small typo in para 13. First 'Israel' should be 'Iran'. Great article, thanks.

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Pascal Clérotte's avatar

Great analysis, Thomas.

Regarding proliferation, another possibility is the multiplication of strategic and defense agreements instead of nukes. None of the existing nuclear powers—official and unofficial—want to see an increase in nuclear proliferation.

One very good example is Iran and the strategic agreements it signed with Russia and China, although without a defense clause, because it'll do more harm than good to all parties.

Iran has just made the point that mid-range ballistic capabilities, enough to tear off an arm of any regional enemy, are sufficient to deter and defend oneself. Missile and drone technologies have already been proliferated by China (heard about the Karl Lee case?) since the early 2010 for the very purpose of providing its partners with means to themselves deter regionally without China needing to intervene militarily abroad. This is a key element in China's Belt and Road Initiative and this is bloody smart. Hardcore systemic thinking chinese style.

I don't think Iran will escalate by directly striking US interests, because it doesn't need to. Keeping pounding Israel and having it deplete its air defense ammo—thus the US air defense ammo—will do the trick. Keep in mind that due to Ukraine, US stockpiles are at their lowest, and Washington does not have the manufacturing capacity to supply what's needed to intercept everything Tehran may throw at Tel Aviv. It's a war by numbers neither Israel, nor the US, nor NATO can win.

-- Update 06/23/2025 @ 2046 hours --

Iran did launch tonight ballistic missiles targeting a US base in Qatar. Iran gave advance warning to the Qatari and used obsolete missiles that Doha air defence could intercept effortlessly. Iranians also provided all trajectory data.

Them Zanakabaz from Tehran are good. No wonder they've been playing the West for 46 years and are still at it..

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