How NATO and the Pentagon simulate the destruction of Europe

A new book reveals the extent to which the US and NATO have always viewed Europe as a battlefield for its conflict with Russia, even at the cost of its complete destruction

A review of the latest book by German propaganda researcher Jonas Tögel, Kriegsspiele — Wie NATO und Pentagon die Zerstörung Europas simulieren (“War Games — How NATO and the Pentagon Simulate the Destruction of Europe”), which offers an illuminating insight into NATO’s military planning and strategies for a possible war with Russia. Guest post by Maike Gosch. Originally published in the German magazine NachDenkSeiten.

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Everyone in Germany is currently talking about war, yet we know very little about the concrete consequences, potential course and extent of such a possible war in and around Europe.

“Bunker apps” are being developed, hospitals are practicing “triage” as they did during the Covid-19 pandemic, and established political parties are competing to outdo one another with demands for arms deliveries to Ukraine and an increase in Germany’s defense budget. The German armed forces are plastering cities with advertisements aimed at recruiting young men. Despite Donald Trump’s promise to swiftly end the war in Ukraine if he takes office, Germany continues to be in a state of high alert for war. The “Zeitenwende” (turning point) proclaimed offhandedly by Olaf Scholz in spring 2022 appears to be becoming a reality.

But there is an interesting duality here: on one hand, the danger posed by Russia and the potential escalation of the war is repeatedly emphasised to justify arms deliveries to Ukraine and military buildup. This threat is taken very seriously by our government and media. On the other hand, any attempt to de-escalate the situation, any serious diplomatic initiative, and any effort to understand the root causes of the war are met with a fervour reminiscent of the scenes in Thomas Vinterberg’s 1990s film The Celebration, where a son tries to confront his family about his father’s sexual abuse, only to be silenced with increasing anger and violence.

It’s a natural and understandable impulse for those of us still advocating for peace to dismiss many of these developments and messages as propaganda aimed at lining the pockets of the military-industrial complex and garnering support for NATO membership and expansion (a phenomenon Noam Chomsky refers to as “manufacturing consent”). However, this does not mean ignoring the dangers of the game being played by German and European politicians.

Jonas Tögel’s new book, War Games — How NATO and the Pentagon Simulate the Destruction of Europe, fills a significant gap in public discourse. The author provides an insightful overview of military planning and strategies in Europe while passionately advocating for peace.

Jonas Tögel, an Americanist and propaganda researcher, holds a doctorate on soft power and motivation and works as a research associate at the Institute of Psychology at the University of Regensburg. His research focuses include soft power techniques, nudging, and propaganda. He is also the author of the bestseller Kognitive Kriegsführung (“Cognitive Warfare”, 2023), which addressed the often-overlooked propaganda activities conducted by Western governments and intelligence agencies.

Eagerly anticipating his latest work, I was initially surprised that Tögel begins not with NATO propaganda but with an overview of military exercises and war scenarios involving a conflict between the West and Russia. How relevant is it to delve into military history, sometimes going back to the 19th century? The world is moving so fast, and the situation in Ukraine and Europe is in constant flux. Perhaps the threat of war will have dissipated by next month, especially if Trump were to ride in on a white horse and conjure up a peace treaty.

But after just a few pages, Tögel had convinced me. He starts with the “Heartland Theory” proposed by geographer Halford John Mackinder in 1904. This theory, familiar to many readers, posits that the vast and resource-rich landmass of Eurasia is the great pivot or “heartland” of global politics. Controlling this area, Mackinder argued, meant controlling the world.

Three points Mackinder raised remain strikingly relevant:

1. He emphasised the central strategic importance of this region for global politics, likening it to Germany’s role in Europe.

2. He warned against Chinese control of the heartland, describing the resulting empire as a “yellow peril threatening the freedom of the world”. Tögel rightly highlights how this xenophobic narrative continues to shape Western geopolitical discourse today.

3. He cautioned against a potential alliance between Russia and Germany, considering it one of the gravest threats to global stability.

Tögel connects these historical perspectives to contemporary geopolitics, demonstrating their relevance. For example, in 2015, George Friedman, founder of the think tank Stratfor, stated:

The overriding interest of the United States, for which we have fought wars for centuries — the First, Second and Cold War — has been the relationship between Germany and Russia, because united there they are the only force that could threaten us. And we need to make sure that doesn’t happen.

So you can see that what Jonas Tögel has unearthed here sheds a very interesting light on current events. In this context, the accusation is often raised that these are (either) “far-right” or pro-Russian narratives (i.e., that the US wants to prevent Russia and Germany from merging). However, to be more accurate, one should speak of Anglo-American narratives, as Tögel shows.

Now, in recent years there have been a few books on geopolitics that deal with the topic of the “heartland” theory, but that was just the introduction to the book.

It continues with an overview and analysis of the military planning games of the West and NATO during the Cold War. Now you would think that this would be of interest mainly to military historians, but here too there is a lot of exciting information and aspects that I at least was not yet aware of and that shed a bright light on the current situation in terms of geopolitics and military strategy in Europe and of course also here in Germany. For example, I had never heard of the British plan on May 22, 1945 (!) to launch a massive surprise attack on Russia and to carry it out with German soldiers who would be taken from the prisoner of war camps in which the Allies had put them and forced to fight again.

The plan continued with a plan by the Americans, also from 1945, which included dropping atomic bombs on 20 Russian cities. The next plan from 1949 increased this to atomic bombs on 200 targets in Russia, and by 1957 atomic bombs were already planned on 3,261 targets.

Tögel also describes the founding of NATO and Germany’s role in it, and here too we learn shocking and rarely heard things. For example, in one of NATO’s first war games (Operation “Carte Blanche”, 1955) with the new member, the Federal Republic of Germany, which hoped that joining would bring security and protection from its transatlantic big brother, a scenario was drawn up in which 168 atomic bombs were to be dropped on German territory as a battlefield between the Soviet Union and NATO, and (a low estimate) 1.7 million Germans were killed and 3.5 million injured. So much for protection. It sends a chill down your spine when you learn how callously the transatlantic partner calculated the almost complete destruction of Germany and the cruel deaths of millions of Germans.

In these passages — and those about the corresponding simulations and exercises in later years, as well as the political debates about them — it also becomes clear how much the US sees Europe as a battlefield for its conflict with Russia (or at the time the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact). Just as in Ukraine today, others should suffer for them and die for the geopolitical power struggles of the world empire.

What is particularly exciting about Tögel’s description of these events and simulations is the attitude of the politicians at the time and also the reporting and commentary of the media (such as Spiegel), which at the time were much more critical of the US strategy and its decisions and discussed much more openly what negative consequences these would have for Germany.

In contrast, it becomes clear once again how uniform the reporting and the stance of most political parties have become on issues of the subordination of German military and geopolitical interests to those of the US and the US-led NATO, and that critical voices on this issue only come from the supposedly “extreme” fringes of the discourse.

Tögel also describes similar plans by the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact, such as the 1964 simulation game “Seven Days to the Rhine”, which was made public by the Polish government in 2005. In this simulation game, the Warsaw Pact defends itself against a surprise NATO attack on Eastern Europe with the widespread use of nuclear weapons against targets in Western Europe, followed by a large-scale ground offensive. The description of the military exercises ends with the last NATO exercise, “Steadfast Defender”, which took place in 2024, but about which Tögel is unfortunately unable to provide much detailed information as it is classified.

In the last part of the book, Tögel summarises the current debate about war and peace in Germany and provides important information about the narratives and communication strategies that play a role here. He also shows how surprisingly marginal and ineffective the people in Germany who advocate peace and diplomacy currently are and tries to find explanations for this.

The book ends with a well-founded and certainly deeply felt call for a change in consciousness and for action for a peaceful solution in the “heartland”.

Despite the detailed presentation and the careful research, and despite the very depressing subject matter, the book is surprisingly easy to read and entertaining, thanks to Tögel’s clear style and clear line of thought. Overall, he is clearly trying to present the various points of view in a balanced and objective manner and does not adopt a “Russian” viewpoint — although that will certainly not stop anyone from accusing him of that, since we are living in a new McCarthy era.

Overall, the short book (96 pages) is an interesting and valuable compilation of historical information as well as current analyses that bring many things into public awareness that can further sharpen our view of the irresponsible and misguided escalation of our time and will hopefully lead to a strengthening of the peace movement in Germany.

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Thomas Fazi

Website: thomasfazi.net

Twitter: @battleforeurope

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