Is this the end for Zelensky?

The Ukrainian president is facing calls for regime change

In my latest article for UnHerd, I look at the anti-Zelensky backlash that is mounting both within Ukraine and in the West as a result of the catastrophic failure of the much-vaunted counteroffensive — and how this might even lead to a Maidan-style coup against the Ukrainian president. Here’s an excerpt:

The Biden administration’s increasingly desperate attempts to convince Congress to approve a new round of emergency funding for Ukraine failed again last week, when the Senate blocked yet another aid bill. In some respects, Biden is in a similar position to Zelensky: he has systematically promised a complete Ukrainian victory and refused to negotiate with Putin, so is understandably concerned about doing an about-face before the next elections. Yet, in US defence circles, there is growing awareness that a protracted conflict would seriously jeopardise US interests.

One way for the Biden administration to save face could be to “freeze” the conflict for the time being — at least until the US elections — through some kind of informal agreement with Russia. But this strategy presents its own problems: not only is it far from clear that Russia would accept freezing the war while it enjoys a tactical advantage, but it would also require getting Zelensky onboard — or getting him out of the picture.

From the US perspective, a democratic regime change in Ukraine would arguably be the preferable solution; but, as noted, elections aren’t on the table at the moment. This doesn’t mean that change isn’t coming, though; if anything, it only heightens the risk of Zelensky’s opponents — inside and outside of the country — trying to get rid of him by other means. Indeed, Zelensky himself recently expressed concern that a new Maidan-type coup is being plotted to oust him.

Read the rest of the article here.

Here’s some extra info about the coup theory that I had to leave out in the article:

According to Oleg Tsaryov, a former pro-Russian member of the Ukrainian Parliament, there is a real possibility that Ukraine could face a new “Maidan”, similar to the mass civil unrest seen in 2013-2014, or even an outright military coup. This is something that is being publicly discussed in Ukrainian political circles, Tsaryov said, especially in light of the emerging rift between the military and civilian leadership. After Servant of the People [Zelensky’s party] deputy Mariana Bezugla publicly called for call for commander-in-chief Zaluzhnyi’s resignation, Alexander Lemenov, a well-known activist close to Western structures, founder of the NGO StateWatch, suggested that Zelensky could face a military coup.

It’s unclear what the stance of Western capitals is on the coup option, nor who their preferred candidate for replacing Zelensky would be. Zaluzhny might seem like the perfect choice for managing the exit strategy — as a military man, he’d be better suited than others to keep the more extremist factions of the army under control. However, from a US perspective, he might represent a problem for the opposite reason as Zelensky: for advocating a formal peace deal with Russia which Washington isn’t ready for yet.

According to an anonymous US official cited by Seymour Hersh in a recent article, Zaluzhny’s interview with The Economist “was not a spur-of-the-moment even; this was carefully orchestrated by Zaluzhny”, almost certainly in coordination with the Russian military leadership. “The message [to Zelensky] was the war was over and we want out. To continue it would destroy the next generation of the citizens of Ukraine”, the source added. Russian media has also reported that Putin is ready to negotiate.

The problem is that peace talks are unlikely to happen without a serious US commitment — one which the Biden administration is, for now, unwilling to offer. But Ukraine has already paid a huge price for the West’s derailment of peace talks in the past. For the US to keep this war going for purely electoral reasons would be utterly unforgivable.

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Best regards,

Thomas Fazi

Website: thomasfazi.net

Twitter: @battleforeurope 

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