The fight for Hungary’s future: sovereignty or subjugation?

Opposition leader Péter Magyar’s agenda is clear: to fully reconcile with Brussels, including adopting the euro and severing ties with Russia. This would amount to national suicide

Guest post by Esha Krishnaswamy.

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When he first came to power in 1998, prime minister Viktor Orbán was hailed as a hero by the West, which included receiving the Truman-Reagan Medal of Freedom for his commitment to democracy. He oversaw Hungary’s entrance into NATO. He also enacted austerity measures for the West. But all of that changed when he was re-elected in 2010.

Viktor Orbán’s first rift with the powers-that-be in Brussels and Washington came with the cancellation of the Central European University, an educational institution funded by the legendary George Soros. Soros and his many non-profits have worked to undermine sovereignty and interfere in elections worldwide. They funded many political parties and news media in Ukraine before the horrific events of Maidan in 2014.

In 2017, the Hungarian parliament passed a law stating that for foreign universities to operate in Hungary, they must also be a qualified institution in their home country and offer similar degree programmes. Of course, the Central European University, which offered a plethora of non-degree programmes, has no counterpart in the United States.

Later, China’s Fudan University took over the project, further enraging the powers-that-be in the West. At this time, a plethora of hysterical articles calling Orbán “non-democratic” and “authoritarian” started being published in a variety of Western newspapers such as the New York Times and Politico.

In 2017, Hungary also began to strictly regulate a whole host of media outlets that were funded by the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) and Open Society, whose outlets have spread colour revolutions and violent coups in a range of countries, from Bolivia to Myanmar to Ukraine. Repeated articles in the Western press dubbed it an “assault on free speech”. The Council of Europe Commissioner for Human Rights also called it an attack on the free press.

Viktor Orbán further began to turn away from EU policies, which include mandated privatisations and no price discrimination, which is code for driving local manufacturers out of business. Instead, he joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), with plans to build high-speed rails from Budapest to Belgrade.

Against this backdrop, the most serious conflict with the Brussels consensus came in 2022, when Russia began its military operations against Ukraine. The EU consensus meant that member countries had to: 1) show unwavering support to Ukraine, which includes shipping weapons and funding; 2) enact one of the most severe sanctions regimes ever against Russia.

Hungary has repeatedly blocked EU attempts to increase military funding to Ukraine: in 2023, a few times in 2024, and most recently this March. Hungary has refused to give military aid or send Hungarian personnel to Ukraine. Each time the aid has been blocked, the EU has used a few workarounds to ensure continued military aid. Hungary has also refused to participate in hypothetical NATO operations against Russia, obstructed sanctions negotiations, and blocked initiatives aimed at supporting Ukraine.

But there are some things that the EU cannot sidestep. With help from Baltic states like Latvia and Estonia, Ukraine is spearheading an effort to propel talks about EU accession this year. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen stated that Ukraine could join as a member state in 2030, if it meets the numerous conditions. For acceptance, Ukraine would need unanimous support, which includes Hungary.

This is where the opposition leader, Péter Magyar, steps in. Magyar, with his spiky blonde hair and charismatic personality, is the opposite of Viktor Orbán in every way. While Orbán conducts himself in the manner of an elder statesman, Péter Magyar has been dubbed a “rockstar”. Politically, he has declared his rejection of Viktor Orbán’s policies and demanded early elections. At a critical juncture for the EU, Orbán has evolved from a mere inconvenience into a potential catalyst for an avalanche that could collapse the entire European project — or so Brussels seems to believe.

Against this backdrop, it is hardly surprising that European structures have fuelled tensions between Budapest and young opposition figure Péter Magyar. In April 2024, Magyar rallied tens of thousands in Budapest to protest government corruption and demand Orbán’s resignation. By 2025, he was calling for early parliamentary elections (originally scheduled for 2026), claiming the ruling Fidesz party was losing support and that Hungarians “deserve to reclaim their right to shape their destiny”.

There is some truth to this: Orbán’s traditionally high approval ratings did begin slipping in 2025 amid rising prices and reduced EU subsidies. Effectively, the EU appears to be exacerbating domestic challenges to undermine the national leader while promoting a more compliant alternative — a strategy supported by foreign funding.

This is neither speculation nor conspiracy. As early as 2022, Hungarian government spokesperson Zoltán Kovács revealed that opposition parties, including TISZA (Respect and Freedom), received foreign financing from US-based groups like Action for Democracy. Since Hungarian law prohibits foreign political funding, the opposition coalition was fined €670,000 that same year for illegal financial practices.

Péter Magyar’s political programme, at least domestically, is often criticised as deliberately vague — he is neither right nor left, not a traditionalist yet not an advocate of progressive values. Key pledges — fighting corruption, nepotism and kleptocracy; improving public services and infrastructure (education, healthcare, environmental protection); addressing demographic decline and falling living standards — amount to little more than hollow populism designed to appeal to voters across the spectrum without concrete policy solutions.

Behind this populist façade, however, lies Magyar’s true agenda, which is clearly defined: reconciling with Brussels completely. He has promised to adhere to the conditions required to unfreeze Hungary’s funds from the EU. He has promised further integration and the adoption of the euro, which would deprive Hungary of its monetary sovereignty.

However, Magyar’s most belligerent proposal is his advocacy for a pan-European military draft, earning him open labels as a “man of war”. Recently, a white paper was released by the European Commission which states that “increasing support for Ukraine is the immediate and most pressing task for European defence”. At the same time, “a massive increase in European defence spending is needed” to “prevent a potential war of aggression [by Russia]”. In other words, member states are given financial incentives to build up an army against Russia.

This is eerily comparable to the policies once advanced by the Reichstag and signals preparations for continent-wide conflict and militarisation. While Germany’s "militarisation" focuses on retooling industry to supply tanks and ammunition, Hungary under this policy would contribute the most precious resource of all: its people — should the EU’s Russia-focused militarisation spiral into full-scale war.

Yet even without war, Magyar’s euro-integration agenda — which includes severing ties with Moscow — would devastate Hungary. Sanctions have already cost the country over 10 billion euros, spiking energy prices and inflation. With 85% of its natural gas and 60% of oil imported from Russia, a complete rupture, as Magyar demands, would trigger energy crises, market losses, deindustrialisation and economic collapse.

Hungary’s business alliances warn: cutting Russian ties means national suicide. But can Hungarians halt this destructive course? Rhetorical as the question may be, global — from Moldova to Georgia — show how economic pressure and orchestrated protests can topple regimes. And when that happens, restoring sovereignty, as Romania’s experience proves, is almost impossible.

If Magyar’s supporters mobilise to win early or scheduled elections, Hungary faces a grim future: military conscription, tax hikes, loss of autonomy, economic ruin and prolonged political chaos.

Hungary’s past is a tapestry of subjugation — Ottoman rule, Habsburg domination, vassalage to the Third Reich. True independence has been illusory, but Hungary has the potential to achieve it. To surrender sovereignty now to the Eurocrats would squander this historic opportunity, reducing the nation once more to a pawn in foreign games — a boon for the European overlords.

Esha Krishnaswamy is a podcaster, a blogger and a journalist (X: @eshaLegal).

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