The new East-West divide
The interests of the Europe's two sub-blocs cannot be reconciled
I’ve got a new column up at UnHerd about what is shaping up to be the new geopolitical paradigm that will dominate European politics in the coming years: the shift of the EU’s centre of gravity to the East and the return of the East-West divide — and why it matters. Until recently, the turn towards “illiberal” or “post-liberal” democracy in various Central and Eastern European countries — most notably Hungary and Poland — was described as one of the greatest threats to the EU, with those nations branded as the bloc’s bêtes noires. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has changed everything. It has greatly enhanced the geostrategic importance of those countries that border Ukraine, Russia or Russian-controlled Belarus (or overlook the Northern Sea Route), thus dramatically tilting Europe’s geopolitical balance of power from the West to the East (and partly to the North). This will have momentous consequences for the EU, given that most Central and Eastern European countries are staunchly pro-US and pro-NATO — a position that is fundamentally incompatible with the aspirations of France and other Western European countries for greater “strategic autonomy” from the US. The East-West divide is back with a vengeance — and has the potential of bringing down the entire bloc. Read the article here.
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Thomas Fazi
Website: thomasfazi.net
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Latest book: The Covid Consensus: The Global Assault on Democracy and the Poor—A Critique from the Left (co-authored with Toby Green)
Good piece!
Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, and Lithuania are Catholic. Estonia is Protestant. Hungary is mixed but certainly not Orthodox. The EU is an authoritarian plutocracy before the liberal democracy laters get a look in.
There ARE major divisions in Europe but I think talk of a simple East-West dichotomy is incorrect. I may be wrong but the UnHerd thesis feels like camouflage for "cut those damn crazy Eastern Europeans loose!" so the EU can rollback to an earlier, more decent, more Maastricht, less self-sabotaging time. Which it probably should!