Why Trump won’t end the war in Ukraine

Achieving peace in Ukraine doesn't just mean accepting a deal on Putin’s terms, which will be difficult to sell — even more importantly, it means reassessing the West’s relationship to the world

I’ve written for UnHerd about why it will be very hard for Trump to achieve a peace deal in Ukraine:

The mere fact that negotiations are now on the table is a welcome development in a war that has already caused immense bloodshed and triggered massive economic and geopolitical tectonic shifts. However, despite making bold claims during his election campaign that he would end the war “in 24 hours”, resolving the conflict is likely to prove very challenging — as Trump himself now admits.

The main hurdle is that the West’s relentless push for an impossible Ukrainian victory against a much stronger opponent has strengthened Russia’s hand. By rejecting earlier opportunities for negotiation — when Ukraine was in a stronger position — Western leaders have allowed Russia to consolidate its military gains, leaving little incentive for Putin to compromise.

In this sense, the belief that the West can achieve at the negotiating table what it failed to secure on the battlefield is, as political realist John Mearsheimer has argued, a dangerous illusion. “To win at the negotiating table, you have to win on the battlefield”, he explained, “and it’s the Russians who are winning on the battlefield”. Putin’s own words at his end-of-year conference underscore this: “The Russian army is advancing along the entire front line… We are moving towards resolving the main objectives that we set at the beginning of the military operation”.

Ukraine — and the West — face a difficult decision: either accept Putin’s terms, or endure the continuation of the war, which will further weaken Ukraine’s position (while causing countless more lives to be lost for nothing).

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Thomas Fazi

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Twitter: @battleforeurope

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