Due primarily to NATO brinkmanship, the risk of an all-out conflict between Europe and Russia is higher than it’s ever been — even at the height of the Cold War
Thank you for this alarming reality check. So the public should be making waves to try to stop this catastrophe, the problem is most of the public at least in the UK seem to be fearing a Russian invasion any moment, such is the outrageous, hysterical media hype about Russian aggression. I'm truly sick to death of people not understanding any of these conflicts in terms of who is the aggressor, namely NATO, and the continued provocation from the West. One aspect is certainly attractive is Russian suggestion of eliminating the elites themselves, I think they'd be doing us all a favour. .
The problem, in large part, is the unending onslaught of anti-Russia propaganda coming from every direction. I'm retired now and have the freedom to read widely. I sympathize a bit with those who have less time and, due to their earlier indoctrination, less inclination to question what they read, hear, and see in the various media.
I totally agree with you on eliminating the elites, and I do believe there is a growing animosity toward them among the those who work for wages in order to live.
Allow me to note that the leitmotif of Th. Fazi’s commentary - which I find always interesting - has perceptibly shifted from « Russia’s victory in this war is inevitable » to something like « if Russia is not allowed to win this war the hell will break loose ». One suspects that the shift is evidence of the success of Ukraine’s new strategy of striking deep into Russian territory. One may discuss in a realist perspective the benefits and the costs, but I find it difficult to take seriously the implicit premise « How dares Ukraine strike energy and military infrastructure in Russia just as Russia has done in Ukraine since the start of the war ? » Concerning the integration of Ukraine’s military complex into those of Germany and its northern allies, it is by far the most economically efficient aspect of the otherwise quite wasteful European rearmament: calculations of military PPPs show Ukraine to be just about the lowest-cost producer of armaments in the world. Add to that the invaluable experience gained on the battlefield, in particular the revolution in drone warfare, and the proposition is simply irresistible.
The europoliticians will simply ban the AfD and RN, or cancel election results they don't like. Worked in Romania, and to cheers from Brussels. The populace went along like sheep to the slaughter.
Something I wrote yesterday:
As a practical matter, "defending democracy(tm)" in europe means "escalate The War On Russia" and nothing else, as the european elites have no other priority, besides they and their spawn not personally fighting in that war. Remember the mewling over Meloni in Italy? Once it became clear that she would be brought to heel and act as a proper european warmonger, all the objections were forgotten, all was forgiven.
For that matter, if an AfD, an RC or a Reform in the uk to actually get into office, they could toss migrant children alive and screaming into piranha tanks, and nobody would raise a peep, as long as they supported The War On Russia.
And yes, prepare to be disappointed. Even if Democracy Has Failed, an RN or AfD candidate gets into office, the leash will be snapped, and the party will fall in line. They may grumble, they may even stall, but in the end, by hook or by crook, by bribes or blackmail, the Good Europeans will keep the war going.
How many times have humans fallen for the bait and switch already? Unless Trump ended the War On Russia in 24 hours and just hasn't bothered to inform anyone yet.
I don't know about France and Germany, but here in the US it is now officially plain that elections are for sale. The ousting of Congressman Massie of Kentucky in the Republican primary put the seal and stamp on that. America is a plutocracy, open to the highest bidder, whether domestic or foreign; in this example it was AIPAC/Israeli spending that sealed the deal. And it was all out in the open for anyone to see.
Quite amazing, really. But that's our reality, now.
Well, elections are for sale in Europe too, and when it does not work, they weaponize the judiciary to take out competitors. That's how Macron was elected in 2017. That's what happened with the presidential election in Romania late 2025.
It's less obvious than in the US because PACs are not allowed and because there is no dark money, but it amounts to the same thing.
It seems to me that Russia prefers to avoid direct conflict with NATO but continue watching the major European nations economically self destruct with inevitable political restructuring and probably believes the Europeans are incapable of launching any meaningful military strike which, in itself, would be incredibly unpopular, adding to the tensions within European societies.
"Western leaders have convinced themselves, through a combination of wishful thinking and institutional inertia..."
I would be interested to know to what extent Western leaders have fed all the data into a computer model of war, and the computer says there is a 0.51 chance of winning, and so the Western leaders continue on their path because they have ceded control to the model. They are convinced by that element of techne which they dare not gainsay.
"What makes the current situation uniquely perilous is not just the military escalation but the complete collapse of the political imagination that might arrest it. There are no Cold War realists, no back-channel, no serious European leader with the standing and the will to propose a negotiated settlement. There is only the momentum of the war machine, now distributed across a dozen countries and thousands of companies, producing weapons in Finnish factories, German joint ventures and British workshops — all of them feeding a conflict that, in the absence of urgent political intervention, has no logical terminus short of catastrophe."
Imagination is human; cowardice -- ceding control to a model made possible by technology -- is also very human, like the avarice.
Thank you for this alarming reality check. So the public should be making waves to try to stop this catastrophe, the problem is most of the public at least in the UK seem to be fearing a Russian invasion any moment, such is the outrageous, hysterical media hype about Russian aggression. I'm truly sick to death of people not understanding any of these conflicts in terms of who is the aggressor, namely NATO, and the continued provocation from the West. One aspect is certainly attractive is Russian suggestion of eliminating the elites themselves, I think they'd be doing us all a favour. .
The problem, in large part, is the unending onslaught of anti-Russia propaganda coming from every direction. I'm retired now and have the freedom to read widely. I sympathize a bit with those who have less time and, due to their earlier indoctrination, less inclination to question what they read, hear, and see in the various media.
I totally agree with you on eliminating the elites, and I do believe there is a growing animosity toward them among the those who work for wages in order to live.
And I believe a change is coming.
Scary but compelling reading
Allow me to note that the leitmotif of Th. Fazi’s commentary - which I find always interesting - has perceptibly shifted from « Russia’s victory in this war is inevitable » to something like « if Russia is not allowed to win this war the hell will break loose ». One suspects that the shift is evidence of the success of Ukraine’s new strategy of striking deep into Russian territory. One may discuss in a realist perspective the benefits and the costs, but I find it difficult to take seriously the implicit premise « How dares Ukraine strike energy and military infrastructure in Russia just as Russia has done in Ukraine since the start of the war ? » Concerning the integration of Ukraine’s military complex into those of Germany and its northern allies, it is by far the most economically efficient aspect of the otherwise quite wasteful European rearmament: calculations of military PPPs show Ukraine to be just about the lowest-cost producer of armaments in the world. Add to that the invaluable experience gained on the battlefield, in particular the revolution in drone warfare, and the proposition is simply irresistible.
Allow me to note that the leitmotif of Th. Fazi’s commentary - which I find interesting -
Well, Thomas, there are two critical elections in 2027, in Germany and in France.
The europoliticians will simply ban the AfD and RN, or cancel election results they don't like. Worked in Romania, and to cheers from Brussels. The populace went along like sheep to the slaughter.
Something I wrote yesterday:
As a practical matter, "defending democracy(tm)" in europe means "escalate The War On Russia" and nothing else, as the european elites have no other priority, besides they and their spawn not personally fighting in that war. Remember the mewling over Meloni in Italy? Once it became clear that she would be brought to heel and act as a proper european warmonger, all the objections were forgotten, all was forgiven.
For that matter, if an AfD, an RC or a Reform in the uk to actually get into office, they could toss migrant children alive and screaming into piranha tanks, and nobody would raise a peep, as long as they supported The War On Russia.
And yes, prepare to be disappointed. Even if Democracy Has Failed, an RN or AfD candidate gets into office, the leash will be snapped, and the party will fall in line. They may grumble, they may even stall, but in the end, by hook or by crook, by bribes or blackmail, the Good Europeans will keep the war going.
How many times have humans fallen for the bait and switch already? Unless Trump ended the War On Russia in 24 hours and just hasn't bothered to inform anyone yet.
For that you deserve an extra saucer of cream.
That’s my idea as well.
They’ll ban them, give foreigners the right to vote.
Many politicians will publicly say they don’t like it, but vote for it anyway because Le Extrème Right Wingers, and that’ll be the end of it.
I don't know about France and Germany, but here in the US it is now officially plain that elections are for sale. The ousting of Congressman Massie of Kentucky in the Republican primary put the seal and stamp on that. America is a plutocracy, open to the highest bidder, whether domestic or foreign; in this example it was AIPAC/Israeli spending that sealed the deal. And it was all out in the open for anyone to see.
Quite amazing, really. But that's our reality, now.
Well, elections are for sale in Europe too, and when it does not work, they weaponize the judiciary to take out competitors. That's how Macron was elected in 2017. That's what happened with the presidential election in Romania late 2025.
It's less obvious than in the US because PACs are not allowed and because there is no dark money, but it amounts to the same thing.
What a crock of shit article there is only one aggressor and that’s Russia and that demented Putin
NATO is a defensive organization promising to defend each other from aggression
Get your head out of your arse
Thank you for this piece, translated in French here : https://zanzibar.substack.com/p/lotan-allemagne-en-tete-mene-leurope
It seems to me that Russia prefers to avoid direct conflict with NATO but continue watching the major European nations economically self destruct with inevitable political restructuring and probably believes the Europeans are incapable of launching any meaningful military strike which, in itself, would be incredibly unpopular, adding to the tensions within European societies.
One potential path is that Moscow executes tit for tat strikes on European infrastructure, like refineries or fuel terminals.
"Western leaders have convinced themselves, through a combination of wishful thinking and institutional inertia..."
I would be interested to know to what extent Western leaders have fed all the data into a computer model of war, and the computer says there is a 0.51 chance of winning, and so the Western leaders continue on their path because they have ceded control to the model. They are convinced by that element of techne which they dare not gainsay.
"What makes the current situation uniquely perilous is not just the military escalation but the complete collapse of the political imagination that might arrest it. There are no Cold War realists, no back-channel, no serious European leader with the standing and the will to propose a negotiated settlement. There is only the momentum of the war machine, now distributed across a dozen countries and thousands of companies, producing weapons in Finnish factories, German joint ventures and British workshops — all of them feeding a conflict that, in the absence of urgent political intervention, has no logical terminus short of catastrophe."
Imagination is human; cowardice -- ceding control to a model made possible by technology -- is also very human, like the avarice.