Should Russia give Iran nuclear weapons?
According to Andrea Zhok, this might be the only way to restore deterrence in the region, where all the main actors would be capable of inflicting unbearable damage on the other side
Guest post by Andrea Zhok, Professor of Moral Philosophy at the University of Milan.
The situation on the international strategic level now seems to be taking a fairly clear shape: Israel and the US are moving in unison and are willing to do whatever it takes to pursue their ultimate goal, which is the complete elimination of Iran as a regional threat. The remaining caution is solely related to the need to minimise potential damage to Israeli cities and American bases in the region.
The first point that we need to be clear about is that Iran has no possibility of resisting a sustained US-backed Israeli attack for long, even if the attack remains conventional. The main limitation for Israel lies in the resources (human, military, financial) required for a total war, but this limitation is infinitely amplified by the endless supply chain provided by the US. The Iranian leadership is well aware of this and thus continues to act in a way that leaves room for a de-escalation of the conflict, systematically responding in a relatively restrained manner.
The second point is that a strategic defeat of Iran, suppressing it as a regional player and reducing it to a “phantom state” such as Iraq, would be a catastrophe not only for Iran, but also for Russia and China. Iran is increasingly becoming a crucial node for the two BRICS heavyweights as a commercial transit route, a regional bulwark, and a producer of raw materials (primarily gas). An “Iraqified” Iran would be disastrous for the future aspirations of China and Russia, who are fully aware of this. In the past month, there have been high-level talks between Iranian and Chinese leaders on one side (foreign minister Wang Yi) and Russian leaders on the other (Russian prime minister Mishustin was in Tehran on the eve of the Iranian response).
This brings us to the third and decisive issue. Given that Russia and China cannot afford to lose Iran as a regional ally and that the intention of Israel and the US is precisely to “Iraqify” Iran, what can the two BRICS leaders do to avoid this outcome? Diplomacy and forms of “moral suasion” at this historical juncture are mere hot air. If there were the prospect of a long-term conflict, as in Syria, a structured Russian intervention in the region would become a real possibility, through the construction of bases, while China could operate, as it does now, as a financial stabiliser for Russia. But if the scenario is that of the US and Israel focusing on the demolition of Iran, there may be no “long-term” at all.
The only realistically viable option seems to be for Russia to play with Iran the same role that the US plays with Israel: unlimited military and economic support. But financially, Russia is not in a position to compete with the US, probably not even with China’s lateral support, while in terms of conventional armaments, Russia still has to finish dealing with the Ukrainian issue, which will require a substantial commitment for at least another six months, and thus cannot divert large quantities of weapons it needs for itself.
Therefore, in my opinion, there is only one solution to stabilise the area and prevent Israel and the US from being tempted to engage in a final confrontation with Iran: for Russia to deliver a limited contingent of nuclear warheads to Iran, perhaps even just tactical ones. Technically, this is not a trivial operation. It’s not like handing over a gun. It requires support technicians and maximum secrecy. But it is feasible and would be a “game changer”.
Once the warheads are obtained and made operational, Iran should conduct an internal test to publicly signal the availability of a force capable of destroying an Israeli city or any American base in the region. This signal should be enough to restore a new balance in the region, where all the main actors would now appear capable of inflicting unbearable damage on the other side. It is a harsh world where international respect is based solely on the ability to annihilate one’s opponent, but that is what this era hands us. And frankly, I believe that Russia and Iran are already thinking in such terms.
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Thomas Fazi
Website: thomasfazi.net
Twitter: @battleforeurope
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Sobering indeed, when global interactions are based not on cooperation, tolerance and mutual respect, but upon bully boy dominance. So much for the UN and international law. Despite all the posturing and sad faced journalists on tv, it is apparent that at the government level nobody really cares about human suffering and most countries have not even broken diplomatic relations with Israel. More power to Russia and Iran… I hope they pull this off. What I’d give to see Netanyahu, Blinken, Nuland, Biden completely humiliated - then tried for war crimes. 😡
This article contains numerous dubious assumptions and instances of sloppy thinking. A big two are that (1) Iran wants nuclear weapons and (2) is not capable of developing them on their own. In fact Iran is a nuclear threshold state tgat could produce nuclear weapons in two weeks’ time. But there fatwah of the supreme leader stating that nuclear weapons are haram, because they kill civilians indiscriminately. The IRGC has asked him to reconsider, but he has refused. This could change, for example if the supreme leader dies and the new leader is of a different opinion.
A third flawed assumption is that Iran could not withstand a combined US–Israeli attack, and be reduced to an Iraq-like ghost state. Even leaving aside the direct military support Iran will receive from Russia and (perhaps indirecly) also from China, Iran is a far more powerful state than Iraq was on the eve of the American attack. The author shows her profound ignorance of current military realities.