According to Andrea Zhok, this might be the only way to restore deterrence in the region, where all the main actors would be capable of inflicting unbearable damage on the other side
Sobering indeed, when global interactions are based not on cooperation, tolerance and mutual respect, but upon bully boy dominance. So much for the UN and international law. Despite all the posturing and sad faced journalists on tv, it is apparent that at the government level nobody really cares about human suffering and most countries have not even broken diplomatic relations with Israel. More power to Russia and Iran… I hope they pull this off. What I’d give to see Netanyahu, Blinken, Nuland, Biden completely humiliated - then tried for war crimes. 😡
This article contains numerous dubious assumptions and instances of sloppy thinking. A big two are that (1) Iran wants nuclear weapons and (2) is not capable of developing them on their own. In fact Iran is a nuclear threshold state tgat could produce nuclear weapons in two weeks’ time. But there fatwah of the supreme leader stating that nuclear weapons are haram, because they kill civilians indiscriminately. The IRGC has asked him to reconsider, but he has refused. This could change, for example if the supreme leader dies and the new leader is of a different opinion.
A third flawed assumption is that Iran could not withstand a combined US–Israeli attack, and be reduced to an Iraq-like ghost state. Even leaving aside the direct military support Iran will receive from Russia and (perhaps indirecly) also from China, Iran is a far more powerful state than Iraq was on the eve of the American attack. The author shows her profound ignorance of current military realities.
Obviously, the murderous Israeli regime must be deterred. On October 24-26, BRICS is to meet. My understanding is that at that meeting, Russia and Iran will sign a mutual defense agreement.
No one in Russia will „give“ nuclear weapons to Iran. Having nuclear weapons is such a tremendous responsibility, tied directly to existence of a state/nation, that decision to have a nuclear weapon has to come from inside, and weapon has to be built with own faculties, because the leaders of the nation honestly think it is necessary for the nation to be able to survive as an independent country.
This logic is what has led Soviets, Chinese, Indians, Pakistanis and finally Israelis and North Koreans to do what was necessary and produce a nuclear weapon.
Israel is doing it‘s best to prove to Iran that it is absolutely necessary for Iran to acquire nuclear weapon if Iran is to survive.
It would be irresponsible of the Iranian leaders to rely on any guarantees from US, the West, even guarantees from Russia and China to defend Iran from Israel's nuclear attack. In the eyes of the Israelis, and US Israeli lobby, now is a once in 100 years chance of getting rid of all remaining enemies of Israel, and after the destruction of Iraq, Libya, and damaging Syria, there is only Palestinian nation, and Iran that is opposing the dreams of creating Great Israel. No one else is seriously opposed, US and Europeans are supportive, Sunni Turkey and Saudi Arabia, and Gulf monarchies, are not into the fight, whatever the result, they will accept.
Iran will be attacked, viciously, repeatedly.
There is a huge amount of know how to be exchanged between North Korea and Iran regarding both nuclear as well as missile technology. And this exchange is being accelerated by US diplomatic failures
Right now it is only China and Russia that are keeping Iran’s nuclear weapon from happening and that is an enormous responsibility... Responsible Iranian leaders would protect their country by being able, and producing their own nuclear weapon, in absolute secrecy. Not a word, by anyone, to anyone, until 50 nuclear warheads are ready. Never brag, keep good relations with Sunni states, be extremely courteous and accommodating to neighbours. But be aware, without nukes you will be annihilated.
The problem with your ‘argument’ is that since Israel certainly had nukes, they could have wiped out Iran at any time. They didn’t. Indeed, despite continuous bombardment of Israel be Irans proxies, going on for decades now, they have barely responded. Certainly Iranian leaders would be crazy to rely on any external guarantor. But what would guarantee their security from Israel would be stopping proclaiming their god-mandated aim of annihilating Israel.
Can't work out whether this is a thought experiment, or an actual recommendation. If the latter, it is utter madness. Iran has regularly, and does regularly, threaten Israel with annihilation, and tries to make good those threats through financing/arming proxies who consistently attack Israel not with words, but with missiles. Iran itself has now attacked Israel with ballistic missiles. There is every reason to expect that, if Iran ever gets its hands on nuclear weapons, it will use them to wipe Israel off the map, with millions - millions - of casualties.
And none of this is even to mention the malign oppression the Iranian regime visits on its population.
First of all, it's not my piece, it's a piece by renowned Italian philosopher Andrea Zhok. Second, it's neither a thought experiment nor a recommendation: it's a reflection on what might be the BRICS' strategic thinking in the current juncture. Third, if Iran wanted to "wipe Israel off the map" it already has the capability to do that – or at least to inflict massive damage simply by resorting to the hypersonic missiles it already has. Fourth, Iran has signalled very clearly that it does NOT want all-out war with Israel (and by the extension the US), which the above would trigger. Fifth, the author is reflecting on the extent to which introducing mutually assured destruction to the region could be actually be conducive to peace as a deterrent for further conventional escalation, the point being precisely that if both sides had nuclear weapons neither would conceive of using them – or even, one would hope, escalate indefinitely.
First, Iran has now fired hypersonics at Israel, in an attempt to inflict indiscrimate damage on Israel's population. Failed. Second, of course it doesn't want a full-scale war with Israel, since it is already it is clear it would fail (and its failure would be welcomed by its Arab neighbours). Rather, it prefers to attack Israel's population via its paid and armed proxies. Third, it is one hell of an assumption that giving Iran would guarantee stalemate, rather than simply mutual destruction. MAD theory worked, just about, in the post-war period, but history now knows it was a lot close than we thought at the time (Able Archer etc). And that was with the US and the Soviet Union, both of whom I think were more committed to rational calculation than I believe theocracies are likely to be. Just a guess, but one I'd not want to put to the test.
Finally, I must admit that I've never heard of Adrea Zhok: he doesn't feature anywhere in the Oxford philosophy syllabus. That's probably because his specialist subject appears to be phenomenology, which, frankly, isn't a recommendation.
It is difficult to discuss anything if you are deliberately avoiding truth.
Obvious fact confirmed by US media, Israeli IDF is that a significant number of missiles did pass through Israeli defences, some of them hypersonic, and not a single Israeli civilian was killed or wounded. Why? Exactly because Iran does not attempt to inflict indiscriminate damage to civilians.
Iran has targeted successfully military bases.
You should look yourself in a mirror. It is Israel that is deliberately killing civilians, it is Israel that promises the complete annihilation of Iran.
Iran is the responsible, wise, adult in the room. Israel is a spoiled child.
The only country wiping anyone off the map is Israel. It must be deterred. Iran and Russia may soon be signing a mutual defense pact. Hopefully, before Israel turns another country to rubble.
Deluded by reasoning, the author has succumbed to the inherent fascism of excluding compassion from consideration. Acting from the heart does not fail, whereas a strictly intellectual tact invariably leads one astray.
Excellent article. Zio-America has laid to waste entire nations and peoples like no other country in modern history. The list is long. Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, Syria, Iran, Lebanon, Palestine, and more. Incredibly, these victims of Zio-Washington's aggression never posed an actual threat to US security nor sought war with America. In reality, these weaker states were just in the way of an ambitious, ever-expanding Israel. Jewish supremacism has taken hold of Israel and even Washington. This is the greatest existing threat to international order.
This meddlesome duo (with Israel in the lead) must be held accountable so that international order can me rescued from their serial war-making. Criminalize warmongering. Enforce UN resolutions. Terminate the unhealthy and artificial 'alliance' between supremacist Israel and superpower America.
We are now living in the most dangerous era since the Cuban missile crisis. Yet most people (and even most lawmakers and journalists) act as if there's nothing to worry about. How very foolhardy and reckless. Israel especially must be contained. Zio-America's foreign policies have become a criminal enterprise. It is therefore time for Iran to be given a nuclear deterrence.
I agree with the - totally - there is no country on the planet more measured and responsible than Iran - but as far as Russia really thinking this way - I doubt it. Russia thinks about alot of things but doesn't do it. Why doesn't Syria even have air defense that can stop Israel bombing their airports ? Why doesn't Gaza ? And Lebanon - so although I think nuclear weapons in the hands of Iran does not endanger the rest of the world, that would also be a game changer of a much less destructive nature.
In the eyes of the Israelis, and US Israeli lobby, now is a once in 100 years chance of getting rid of all remaining enemies of Israel, and after the destruction of Iraq, Libya, and severely damaging Syria, there is only Palestinian nation, Shias in Lebanon, and Iran that is opposing the dreams of creating Great Israel. No one else is seriously opposed, US and Europeans are supportive, Sunni Turkey and Saudi Arabia, and Gulf monarchies, are not into the fight, whatever the result, they will accept.
Israel has destroyed Gaza in a manner Germans destroyed Warsaw ghetto, mirroring taking thousand Jewish lives for a German life, with taking thousand Palestinian lives for a Jewish life, and is now proceeding with destruction of Lebanon.
Iran will be attacked, viciously, repeatedly, until a regime change succeeds, or Iran is destroyed like Gaza and Lebanon, today.
There is an alternative, for Israel to accept the proposal by Arab and Moslem countries, that guarantees Israel recognition, future, security on the basis of two state solution. But there is no one in Israel, or US ready for peace.
The Americans are trying to topple Putin and emasculate Russia for the duration, again. If the Russians proliferate by giving Iran some nuclear capability, it is pretty clear the Ukraine war would be taken to another level and Israel would in some way pre-empt. There are so many ways in which both could be done
i am not sure why you say that.. how many wars can the usa handle at one time do you think? there priority has always been israel as that warm and fuzyy genocial democracy in the middle east.. but it appears brics are going to eat their breakfast in the next while, so maybe iran is more of a priority for them.. meanwhile ukraine will be left out to dry.. the usa can’t fight all of them all at once.. well maybe the neo cons think they can. are there any sane heads in the usa? it doesn’t look like it.. i will give you that..
Sobering indeed, when global interactions are based not on cooperation, tolerance and mutual respect, but upon bully boy dominance. So much for the UN and international law. Despite all the posturing and sad faced journalists on tv, it is apparent that at the government level nobody really cares about human suffering and most countries have not even broken diplomatic relations with Israel. More power to Russia and Iran… I hope they pull this off. What I’d give to see Netanyahu, Blinken, Nuland, Biden completely humiliated - then tried for war crimes. 😡
This article contains numerous dubious assumptions and instances of sloppy thinking. A big two are that (1) Iran wants nuclear weapons and (2) is not capable of developing them on their own. In fact Iran is a nuclear threshold state tgat could produce nuclear weapons in two weeks’ time. But there fatwah of the supreme leader stating that nuclear weapons are haram, because they kill civilians indiscriminately. The IRGC has asked him to reconsider, but he has refused. This could change, for example if the supreme leader dies and the new leader is of a different opinion.
A third flawed assumption is that Iran could not withstand a combined US–Israeli attack, and be reduced to an Iraq-like ghost state. Even leaving aside the direct military support Iran will receive from Russia and (perhaps indirecly) also from China, Iran is a far more powerful state than Iraq was on the eve of the American attack. The author shows her profound ignorance of current military realities.
Or that Iran needs Russia for that when it has great connections with China, North Korea and Pakistan.
Obviously, the murderous Israeli regime must be deterred. On October 24-26, BRICS is to meet. My understanding is that at that meeting, Russia and Iran will sign a mutual defense agreement.
Michael,
No one in Russia will „give“ nuclear weapons to Iran. Having nuclear weapons is such a tremendous responsibility, tied directly to existence of a state/nation, that decision to have a nuclear weapon has to come from inside, and weapon has to be built with own faculties, because the leaders of the nation honestly think it is necessary for the nation to be able to survive as an independent country.
This logic is what has led Soviets, Chinese, Indians, Pakistanis and finally Israelis and North Koreans to do what was necessary and produce a nuclear weapon.
Israel is doing it‘s best to prove to Iran that it is absolutely necessary for Iran to acquire nuclear weapon if Iran is to survive.
It would be irresponsible of the Iranian leaders to rely on any guarantees from US, the West, even guarantees from Russia and China to defend Iran from Israel's nuclear attack. In the eyes of the Israelis, and US Israeli lobby, now is a once in 100 years chance of getting rid of all remaining enemies of Israel, and after the destruction of Iraq, Libya, and damaging Syria, there is only Palestinian nation, and Iran that is opposing the dreams of creating Great Israel. No one else is seriously opposed, US and Europeans are supportive, Sunni Turkey and Saudi Arabia, and Gulf monarchies, are not into the fight, whatever the result, they will accept.
Iran will be attacked, viciously, repeatedly.
There is a huge amount of know how to be exchanged between North Korea and Iran regarding both nuclear as well as missile technology. And this exchange is being accelerated by US diplomatic failures
Right now it is only China and Russia that are keeping Iran’s nuclear weapon from happening and that is an enormous responsibility... Responsible Iranian leaders would protect their country by being able, and producing their own nuclear weapon, in absolute secrecy. Not a word, by anyone, to anyone, until 50 nuclear warheads are ready. Never brag, keep good relations with Sunni states, be extremely courteous and accommodating to neighbours. But be aware, without nukes you will be annihilated.
The problem with your ‘argument’ is that since Israel certainly had nukes, they could have wiped out Iran at any time. They didn’t. Indeed, despite continuous bombardment of Israel be Irans proxies, going on for decades now, they have barely responded. Certainly Iranian leaders would be crazy to rely on any external guarantor. But what would guarantee their security from Israel would be stopping proclaiming their god-mandated aim of annihilating Israel.
Several years ago Iran was making its own nuclear fuel which could be used to make nuclear bombs - what has changed since?
Can't work out whether this is a thought experiment, or an actual recommendation. If the latter, it is utter madness. Iran has regularly, and does regularly, threaten Israel with annihilation, and tries to make good those threats through financing/arming proxies who consistently attack Israel not with words, but with missiles. Iran itself has now attacked Israel with ballistic missiles. There is every reason to expect that, if Iran ever gets its hands on nuclear weapons, it will use them to wipe Israel off the map, with millions - millions - of casualties.
And none of this is even to mention the malign oppression the Iranian regime visits on its population.
I fear Thomas has jumped the shark on this one.
First of all, it's not my piece, it's a piece by renowned Italian philosopher Andrea Zhok. Second, it's neither a thought experiment nor a recommendation: it's a reflection on what might be the BRICS' strategic thinking in the current juncture. Third, if Iran wanted to "wipe Israel off the map" it already has the capability to do that – or at least to inflict massive damage simply by resorting to the hypersonic missiles it already has. Fourth, Iran has signalled very clearly that it does NOT want all-out war with Israel (and by the extension the US), which the above would trigger. Fifth, the author is reflecting on the extent to which introducing mutually assured destruction to the region could be actually be conducive to peace as a deterrent for further conventional escalation, the point being precisely that if both sides had nuclear weapons neither would conceive of using them – or even, one would hope, escalate indefinitely.
I agree Thomas. There isn't another country on the planet as wise and measureed as Iran
First, Iran has now fired hypersonics at Israel, in an attempt to inflict indiscrimate damage on Israel's population. Failed. Second, of course it doesn't want a full-scale war with Israel, since it is already it is clear it would fail (and its failure would be welcomed by its Arab neighbours). Rather, it prefers to attack Israel's population via its paid and armed proxies. Third, it is one hell of an assumption that giving Iran would guarantee stalemate, rather than simply mutual destruction. MAD theory worked, just about, in the post-war period, but history now knows it was a lot close than we thought at the time (Able Archer etc). And that was with the US and the Soviet Union, both of whom I think were more committed to rational calculation than I believe theocracies are likely to be. Just a guess, but one I'd not want to put to the test.
Finally, I must admit that I've never heard of Adrea Zhok: he doesn't feature anywhere in the Oxford philosophy syllabus. That's probably because his specialist subject appears to be phenomenology, which, frankly, isn't a recommendation.
Who told you Iran’s attack was “an attempt to inflict indiscriminate damage on Israel’s populatiom”?
Michael
It is difficult to discuss anything if you are deliberately avoiding truth.
Obvious fact confirmed by US media, Israeli IDF is that a significant number of missiles did pass through Israeli defences, some of them hypersonic, and not a single Israeli civilian was killed or wounded. Why? Exactly because Iran does not attempt to inflict indiscriminate damage to civilians.
Iran has targeted successfully military bases.
You should look yourself in a mirror. It is Israel that is deliberately killing civilians, it is Israel that promises the complete annihilation of Iran.
Iran is the responsible, wise, adult in the room. Israel is a spoiled child.
MAD will work out. Even with theocrats and zionists. They do love their respective nations.
thomas definitely isnt following the western msm script like a number of others appear to be..
The only country wiping anyone off the map is Israel. It must be deterred. Iran and Russia may soon be signing a mutual defense pact. Hopefully, before Israel turns another country to rubble.
Deluded by reasoning, the author has succumbed to the inherent fascism of excluding compassion from consideration. Acting from the heart does not fail, whereas a strictly intellectual tact invariably leads one astray.
Excellent article. Zio-America has laid to waste entire nations and peoples like no other country in modern history. The list is long. Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, Syria, Iran, Lebanon, Palestine, and more. Incredibly, these victims of Zio-Washington's aggression never posed an actual threat to US security nor sought war with America. In reality, these weaker states were just in the way of an ambitious, ever-expanding Israel. Jewish supremacism has taken hold of Israel and even Washington. This is the greatest existing threat to international order.
This meddlesome duo (with Israel in the lead) must be held accountable so that international order can me rescued from their serial war-making. Criminalize warmongering. Enforce UN resolutions. Terminate the unhealthy and artificial 'alliance' between supremacist Israel and superpower America.
We are now living in the most dangerous era since the Cuban missile crisis. Yet most people (and even most lawmakers and journalists) act as if there's nothing to worry about. How very foolhardy and reckless. Israel especially must be contained. Zio-America's foreign policies have become a criminal enterprise. It is therefore time for Iran to be given a nuclear deterrence.
I agree with the - totally - there is no country on the planet more measured and responsible than Iran - but as far as Russia really thinking this way - I doubt it. Russia thinks about alot of things but doesn't do it. Why doesn't Syria even have air defense that can stop Israel bombing their airports ? Why doesn't Gaza ? And Lebanon - so although I think nuclear weapons in the hands of Iran does not endanger the rest of the world, that would also be a game changer of a much less destructive nature.
Michael.
In the eyes of the Israelis, and US Israeli lobby, now is a once in 100 years chance of getting rid of all remaining enemies of Israel, and after the destruction of Iraq, Libya, and severely damaging Syria, there is only Palestinian nation, Shias in Lebanon, and Iran that is opposing the dreams of creating Great Israel. No one else is seriously opposed, US and Europeans are supportive, Sunni Turkey and Saudi Arabia, and Gulf monarchies, are not into the fight, whatever the result, they will accept.
Israel has destroyed Gaza in a manner Germans destroyed Warsaw ghetto, mirroring taking thousand Jewish lives for a German life, with taking thousand Palestinian lives for a Jewish life, and is now proceeding with destruction of Lebanon.
Iran will be attacked, viciously, repeatedly, until a regime change succeeds, or Iran is destroyed like Gaza and Lebanon, today.
There is an alternative, for Israel to accept the proposal by Arab and Moslem countries, that guarantees Israel recognition, future, security on the basis of two state solution. But there is no one in Israel, or US ready for peace.
The Americans are trying to topple Putin and emasculate Russia for the duration, again. If the Russians proliferate by giving Iran some nuclear capability, it is pretty clear the Ukraine war would be taken to another level and Israel would in some way pre-empt. There are so many ways in which both could be done
i am not sure why you say that.. how many wars can the usa handle at one time do you think? there priority has always been israel as that warm and fuzyy genocial democracy in the middle east.. but it appears brics are going to eat their breakfast in the next while, so maybe iran is more of a priority for them.. meanwhile ukraine will be left out to dry.. the usa can’t fight all of them all at once.. well maybe the neo cons think they can. are there any sane heads in the usa? it doesn’t look like it.. i will give you that..
Sure. No one said it makes sense. There are so many ways these eggs can break and they won’t necessarily make an omelette