Trump-Putin phone call yields no breakthrough

So far the two sides have failed to agree even on a limited ceasefire

The two-hour-long phone call between Trump and Putin yesterday failed to produce any substantial results. Although Trump described the conversation as “very good and productive”, the reality is that the two leaders did not reach an agreement on any concrete steps toward a full ceasefire, aside from a limited pause in attacks on energy and infrastructure targets — provided Ukraine complies as well.

To grasp just how far apart the two sides remain on key issues, it’s worth comparing the statements released by the White House and the Kremlin.

What the White House said:

Today, President Trump and President Putin spoke about the need for peace and a ceasefire in the Ukraine war. Both leaders agreed this conflict needs to end with a lasting peace. They also stressed the need for improved bilateral relations between the United States and Russia. The blood and treasure that both Ukraine and Russia have been spending in this war would be better spent on the needs of their people.

This conflict should never have started and should have been ended long ago with sincere and good faith peace efforts. The leaders agreed that the movement to peace will begin with an energy and infrastructure ceasefire, as well as technical negotiations on implementation of a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, full ceasefire and permanent peace. These negotiations will begin immediately in the Middle East.

The leaders spoke broadly about the Middle East as a region of potential cooperation to prevent future conflicts. They further discussed the need to stop proliferation of strategic weapons and will engage with others to ensure the broadest possible application. The two leaders shared the view that Iran should never be in a position to destroy Israel.

The two leaders agreed that a future with an improved bilateral relationship between the United States and Russia has huge upside. This includes enormous economic deals and geopolitical stability when peace has been achieved.

What the Kremlin said:

The leaders continued a detailed and frank exchange of views on the situation around Ukraine. Vladimir Putin expressed gratitude to Donald Trump for his desire to help achieve the noble goal of ending hostilities and human losses.

Having confirmed his fundamental commitment to a peaceful resolution of the conflict, the Russian President declared his readiness to thoroughly work out possible ways to resolve the conflict together with his American partners, which should be comprehensive, sustainable and long-term. And, of course, to take into account the absolute need to eliminate the root causes of the crisis and ensure Russia’s legitimate interests in the field of security.

In the context of the US President’s initiative to introduce a 30-day ceasefire, the Russian side outlined a number of significant points regarding ensuring effective control over a possible ceasefire along the entire line of contact, the necessity to stop the forced mobilization in Ukraine and the rearmament of the Ukrainian armed forces. Serious risks associated with the Kyiv’s regime inability to respect agreements were also noted, given that it has repeatedly sabotaged and violated agreements that have been reached.

Attention was drawn to the barbaric terrorist crimes committed by Ukrainian fighters against the civilian population of the Kursk region. It was emphasized that the key condition for preventing the escalation of the conflict and working toward its resolution through political and diplomatic means should be a complete cessation of foreign military aid and the provision of intelligence information to Kyiv.

In connection with Donald Trump’s recent appeal to spare the lives of Ukrainian servicemen surrounded in the Kursk region, Vladimir Putin confirmed that the Russian side is ready to be guided by humanitarian considerations and, in the event of their surrender, guarantees the lives and decent treatment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers in accordance with Russian laws and the norms of international law.

During the conversation, Donald Trump put forward a proposal for the parties to the conflict to mutually refrain from attacks on energy infrastructure facilities for 30 days. Vladimir Putin responded positively to this initiative and immediately gave the Russian military the appropriate command.

The Russian President also responded constructively to Donald Trump’s idea of implementing a well-known initiative concerning the safety of navigation in the Black Sea. It was agreed to begin negotiations to further work out specific details of such an agreement.

Vladimir Putin informed that on March 19 a prisoner exchange will be carried out between the Russian and Ukrainian sides — 175 for 175 people. In addition, as a gesture of goodwill, 23 seriously wounded Ukrainian servicemen who are undergoing treatment in Russian medical institutions will be handed over.

The leaders confirmed their intention to continue bilateral efforts to achieve a Ukrainian settlement, including taking into account the above-mentioned proposals of the US President. For this purpose, Russian and American expert groups are being created.

Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump also touched upon other issues on the international agenda, including the situation in the Middle East and the Red Sea region. Joint efforts will be made to stabilize the situation in crisis areas, establish cooperation on nuclear non-proliferation and global security. This, in turn, will contribute to improving the overall atmosphere of Russian-American relations. One of the positive examples is the vote made in solidarity in the UN on the resolution regarding the Ukrainian conflict.

Mutual interest in normalizing bilateral relations was expressed in light of the special responsibility of Russia and the United States for ensuring security and stability in the world. In this context, a wide range of areas in which our countries could establish interaction was considered.

A number of ideas were discussed that are moving toward the development of mutually beneficial cooperation in the economy and energy sector.

Donald Trump supported Vladimir Putin’s idea to organize hockey matches in the United States and Russia between Russian and American players playing in the NHL and KHL (Kontinental Hockey League). The presidents agreed to remain in contact on all issues raised.

These are two very different statements. The US readout makes general remarks about the need for peace, while the Russian readout makes very specific demands as a condition for reaching a “comprehensive, sustainable and long-term” agreement, including a “complete cessation of foreign military aid and the provision of intelligence information to Kyiv” — which the US readout makes no mention of, which is probably not surprising given that US military aid continues to flow to Ukraine — and, more in general, the need to “eliminate the root causes of the crisis and ensure Russia’s legitimate interests in the field of security”, a reference to Russia’s insistence on Ukraine’s neutral status and partial demilitarisation, and more in general on the need for a new European security architecture.

On these points, the two sides are clearly far from reaching an agreement — in no small part due to continued resistance from Zelensky and the Europeans on conceding to key Russian demands, including territorial concessions and the continuation of Western military support for Kyiv. This, in effect, amounts to pushing for a continuation of the war.

Indeed, as I noted in a recent article, from the perspective of Zelensky and European leaders, the whole point of the unconditional ceasefire proposal put forward by the US and Ukraine last week — and rejected by Russia — was precisely to make Putin an offer they knew he could’t accept, so they could portray Russia as being uninterested in peace — and have an excuse to continue the war.

As for Trump, as much as he may be sincere in his desire to end the war, he appears either unable or unwilling to rein in Zelensky and his European backers — for example by pausing all military and satellite support for Ukraine — and he’s probably also finding it much harder than expected to meet Russia’s conditions for peace.

Putin also wants to end the war — on his own terms — but with diplomatic talks making little progress and Russia making significant battlefield gains, he’s clearly willing to keep fighting to further improve his position and gain even more leverage in the negotiations. In other words, if Zelensky and the Europeans are looking for an excuse to continue the war, he’s happy to give them one.

Hence the drone attacks conducted by Russia just hours after the call, which reportedly struck civilian infrastructure in several Ukrainian oblasts — though I haven’t been able to determine if this occurred before or after the Ukrainian drone strike that hit a Russian oil depot in the Krasnodar region. Predictably, European leaders — and Zelensky himself — seized upon this to claim once again that Russia is not serious about peace.

For now, even this very limited ceasefire seems out of reach. Unfortunately, this will only worsen Ukraine’s situation — but that’s where things stand.

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Thomas Fazi

Website: thomasfazi.net

Twitter: @battleforeurope

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